据世界石油5月9日报道，IHS Markit预计，2020年第二季度的石油需求将比一年前减少2200万桶/天。

这种需求的崩溃，加上低油价、库存限制和政府居家指令，正在推动全球范围内超常规的减产和停产。

IHS Markit副总裁兼石油市场主管吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示“全球石油供应正迅速、残酷地调整到较低的水平，这是一次大规模的停产。所有生产国都受制于残酷的市场力量，尽管可能受到影响的程度不一，但都不可避免。”

北美和欧佩克成员国，以及独联体国家，尤其是俄罗斯，预计将成为减产的主要力量。

究竟在哪里、为什么以及如何削减供应是一个复杂的问题，石油的生产环境多种多样，这意味着没有固定的方式，决定因素也不尽相同。

IHS Markit确定了影响减产决策的三个关键因素。首先是技术和后勤因素——包括重启的复杂性。技术因素与作业复杂程度有关，如地形、油田衰竭、油藏驱动、生产系统配置和油藏流体组成。复杂性和油田成熟度会影响重新启动生产的难易程度，包括是否会永远失去产出或干脆推迟产出。其他与技术相关的因素包括健康、安全以及工人的可用性。物流因素包括运输需求、运输选择和石油储存可用性。

其次是财务方面的因素，包括营业利润率、当前油价水平、油价的未来预期、运营商的财务状况、资金可用性和其他支出选择——比如决定将资金用于其他项目。

第三是监管和合同条件，包括确保遵守政府的关井要求、政府调整生产的命令和合同义务。遵守欧佩克协议削减产量的政府命令就属于这一类。比如，提供伴生气(即原油井的副产品产生的气)的义务是可能影响生产决策的合同条件。对于与下游资产(如炼油厂和石化工厂)整合的上游业务，下游市场状况和下游资产需求可能会影响有关上游产出的决策，特别是当这些资产归联合所油田时。

洪伟立 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Crashing oil demand drives a 17 MMbpd global output cut in Q2

Consulting firm IHS Markit expects oil demand in the second quarter of 2020 to be 22 MMbpd less than a year ago.

This collapse in demand combined with low oil prices, storage constraints and government ordered cuts are driving what is an extraordinary level of liquids production cuts and shut-ins around the world.

“The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway. All producing countries are subject to the same brutal market forces. Some will be impacted more than others. But there is nowhere to hide,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets at IHS Markit.

North America and OPEC members, as well as countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States—particularly Russia—are expected to be the source of most of the production cuts.

Exactly where, why and how supply cuts will take place is a complex matter. There is no fixed equation. Oil is produced in a wide variety of environments, which means there is no fixed equation and decision factors vary.

IHS Markit has identified three key factors that shape production cut decisions:

Technical and logistical factors—including restart complexity. Technical factors relate to the degree of operational complexity such as terrain, field depletion, reservoir drive, production system configuration and reservoir fluid composition. Complexity and field maturity influence how easy or difficult restarting production could be, including whether output could be forever lost or simply deferred. Other technical-related factors are health, safety, and worker availability. Logistical factors are offtake demand, transport options, and oil storage availability.

Financial considerations. These include operating margins, current oil price levels, future expectations of the oil price, financial health of the operator, capital availability and alternative spending options—such as deciding to spend money on other projects.

Regulatory and contractual conditions. These include ensuring compliance with government requirements for shutting-in wells, government orders to adjust production, and contractual obligations. Government orders to comply with the OPEC+ agreement to cut production fall into this category. Obligation to deliver associated gas (i.e. gas that is produced as byproduct from a crude oil well) is an example of a contractual condition that could impact production decisions. For upstream operations that are integrated with downstream assets—such as refineries and petrochemical facilities—downstream market conditions and needs of downstream assets could impact decisions about upstream output, especially when the assets are under combined ownership.