美国的天然气需求正处于历史高位，预计还会继续上升，但价格却仍在下降。

本周，美国天然气期货价格暴跌至3年来的最低水平，同时，现货价格有望迎来20多年来最疲软的夏季，在其他市场，这样的低定价会导致投资缩减和供应收缩。

但天然气产量已创历史新高，预计还会持续增长。随着发电厂关闭燃煤电厂、燃烧更多的天然气发电，以及液化天然气（LNG）终端迅速扩大，将更多的燃料转化为超冷却液体出口，导致天然气需求正在上升。

分析人士认为，天然气市场不是按需求基本面进行交易，因为供应增长的速度远远超过消费增长的速度。能源公司正从页岩开采出创纪录数量的石油，而石油带来的相关气体要么需要运输，要么需要燃烧。

在纽约商品交易所，天然气期货NGc1本周跌至每百万英热（mmBtu）2.03美元，这是自2016年5月以来的最低水平。今年夏天，路易斯安那州亨利中心NG-W-HH-SNL基准的天然气现货价格有望跌至1998年以来的最低水平。

根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，上周，天然气投机者的净空头头寸升至有记录以来的最高水平。

休斯顿ION Energy的顾问凯尔·库珀称:“所有的牛市迹象都不见了。”

市场预计，在金德摩根的墨西哥湾运通管道于9月份开通后，天然气产量将在今年秋季大幅上升，并释放出部分目前在二叠纪滞留以及被燃烧掉的天然气。

大量相关的天然气从地下流出，以至于美国最大的页岩油层德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地的天然气价格在今年多次出现负增长。

美国LNG公司泰利安首席执行官Meg Gentle表示，目前的管道扩建计划将无法满足二叠纪创纪录的天然气产量，导致位于德克萨斯州西部瓦哈枢纽的天然气价格严重下跌，今年4月，触及了创纪录的负9美元/mmBtu。

今年早些时候，Gentle在一次会议上称："负9美元/mmBtu！我很乐意花1美元/mmBtu买下这一切。”泰利安公司正在路易斯安那州开发Driftwood LNG出口工厂，并铺设管道，将天然气从二叠纪等油田输送到墨西哥湾沿岸。

产量的上升抵消了名义上的看涨因素，如库存持续低迷。尽管最近石油和天然气价格的下跌促使能源公司削减了新钻井的开支，但生产增长的下降仍然被认为是遥远的。

美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，天然气产量将在2019年上升10%，达到910亿立方英尺/日，此前，2018年飙升天然气产量12%，达到创纪录的834亿立方英尺/日，这是自1951年以来最大的年增长率。（注：10亿立方英尺的天然气足够每天为500万户美国家庭提供燃料）

美国LNG的出口，特别是对亚洲的出口，正在推动需求的增长。根据EIA的预测，预计将从2018年创纪录的30亿立方英尺/日上升到2020年的69亿立方英尺/日，使LNG成为美国增长最快的需求来源，尽管如此，LNG的出口仅占美国天然气总使用量的5%左右。

能源顾问公司Ritterbusch and Associates 总裁Jim Ritterbusch在一份报告中表示：“LNG在消费这块蛋糕中所占的比重还不足以独立推高价格。”

与此同时，EIA的数据显示，美国电力公司的天然气使用量可能达到峰值，预计在2019年达到创纪录的306亿立方英尺/日，但随着可再生能源发电的增加，天然气使用量在2020年降至296亿立方英尺/日。

休斯顿能源咨询公司Gelber & Associates的市场分析师Daniel Myers表示：“在含气页岩地层，如宾夕法尼亚州的Marcellus页岩气藏以及德克萨斯州、路易斯安那州和阿肯色州的Haynesville页岩气藏，持续的低价正开始抑制生产商的增长预期。”

但是，像二叠纪这样石油密集地区所产生的天然气的绝对数量意味着供应可能保持强劲。

Myers表示：“二叠纪的产量几乎完全由石油驱动，并且独立于天然气价格。”

詹晓晶摘自世界油气网

原文如下：

U.S. natural gas demand is at a record

U.S. natural gas demand is at an all-time high and expected to keep rising - and yet, prices are falling.

U.S. gas futures this week collapsed to a three-year low, while spot prices were on track to post their weakest summer in over 20 years. In other markets, such lackluster pricing would cause investment to retrench and supply to contract.

But gas production is at a record high and expected to keep growing. Demand is rising as power generators shut coal plants and burn more gas for electricity and as rapidly expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals turn more of the fuel into super-cooled liquid for export.

Analysts believe the natural gas market is not trading on demand fundamentals because supply growth continues to far outpace rising consumption. Energy firms are pulling record amounts of oil from shale formations and with that oil comes associated gas that needs either to be shipped or burned off.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gas futures NGc1 this week dropped to $2.03 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest since May 2016. For the summer, spot gas prices at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana were on track to fall to their lowest since 1998.[NGA/]

Gas speculators last week boosted their net short positions to the highest on record, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“All the bulls are gone,” said Kyle Cooper, consultant at ION Energy in Houston.

The market is expecting a big boost in gas output this fall after Kinder Morgan Inc’s (KMI.N) Gulf Coast Express pipeline comes online in September and releases some of the gas currently stranded and being burned in the Permian.

So much associated gas is coming out of the ground that gas prices in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil formation, have turned negative on multiple occasions this year.

Meg Gentle, CEO of U.S. LNG company Tellurian Inc (TELL.O), said current pipeline expansion plans will not meet record gas production in the Permian, leading to severely depressed prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which touched a record low of negative $9/mmBtu in April.

“Negative $9. I’d be happy taking it all for $1,” Gentle said earlier this year at a conference. Tellurian is developing the Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana and pipelines to transport gas from fields like the Permian to the Gulf Coast.

The rising production has offset a nominally bullish factor like persistently low inventories. While recent declines in oil and gas prices have prompted energy firms to cut spending on new drilling, a drop in production growth is still considered far away. [EIA/GAS] [RIG/U]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects gas production will rise 10% to 91 billion cubic feet per day in 2019 after soaring 12% to a record 83.4 bcfd in 2018, its biggest annual percentage increase since 1951.

One billion cubic feet is enough gas to fuel about five million U.S. homes for a day.

LNG ISN’T ENOUGH

U.S. LNG exports, particularly to Asia, are powering increased demand. They are expected to rise from a record 3.0 bcfd in 2018 to 6.9 bcfd in 2020, according to EIA projections, making LNG the nation’s fastest-growing source of demand. Still, LNG exports account for only about 5% of total U.S. gas use.

“LNG is still not a significant enough portion of the consumption pie to independently push prices higher,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates of Galena, Illinois.

Meanwhile, U.S. power generators’ gas use may be peaking, rising to an expected record 30.6 bcfd in 2019 but then falling to 29.6 bcfd in 2020 as renewables produce more electricity, EIA data shows.

Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, said “persistent low prices are beginning to crimp producers’ growth expectations” in gas-heavy shale formations such as the Marcellus in Pennsylvania or the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.

But the sheer volume of gas produced in oil-heavy plays like the Permian means that supply could remain robust.

“Production in the Permian is nearly entirely oil-driven and independent from gas prices,” said Myers.